Monday, February 21, 2011

Oil Shock, Is the CAD about to Orbit?


The spectre of full civil war in oil-rich Libya has moved the North Africa - Middle East crisis into a more dangerous phase, setting up the potential for an explosive oil shock that will be much worse than the 1970's oil crisis. US oil contracts jumped to over $94 and Brent crude traded as high as $108 today. From a forex perspective, what has been particularly unusual is the utter lack of safe-haven demand for the USD, that has instead gone to the CHF and gold. With North American markets closed today for public holidays, I think we will begin to see the CAD unshackle itself from the tight trading range that it has been in and begin to push past recent 3-year highs.

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