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Sunday, November 14, 2010
Possible Euro Reaction to Irish Bailout
In this article, forex trader analyst, Kathy Lien, describes what could happen to the Euro if Ireland were to get a bailout. Let me add a couple of my own thoughts here. If Ireland undergoes a restructuring of debt, then the Euro will plunge. Why? - because the market will only assume that this is the way things will be resolved if Spain or Italy get into trouble. On the other hand if Ireland receives a bailout from the EU and the IMF, then the Euro may fall a little but it should be cushioned by the opposite force of the Fed's QE 2.0.
My guess is that before the Asian markets open for business, Ireland will be forced by the EU to ask for a bailout in order to stop a contagion from spreading to other European countries, which do have solvency issues, yet have been spared the liquidity hammer so far.
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