Thursday, November 18, 2010

Euro, from Hope to Hopeless

In one form or another, Ireland will get its bailout. What happen after that, who's next? The ECB is in denial, they are not going to exist easy monetary policy. In fact, they are hours away from their own full fledged QE program. This is the message I get after reading the following three articles:

Bloomberg: Euro Dominos Will Fall Until Currency Is Split
There will be a lot of grand rhetoric about the importance of the European project. Stern condemnations of the speculators will ring out across the continent. Don’t listen to a word of it. The Euro has turned into a bankruptcy machine. Once the markets have finished with Ireland, they will simply move on to Portugal and Spain, and after that to Italy and France.

Spiegel: Irish Debt Woes Make German Banks Uneasy
Both Ireland and Greece have accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of having triggered the most recent manifestation of Europe's ongoing debt crisis. Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed in late October to a mechanism for sovereign debt restructuring which would require private investors to bear some of the risk for investing in heavily indebted countries like Greece and Ireland. The hope is that such a mechanism would take effect after the €750 billion euro backstop, established early this year, expires in 2013.

Telegrapgh: The Horrible Truth Starts to Dawn on Europe's Leaders

Jacques Delors and fellow fathers of EMU were told by Commission economists in the early 1990s that this reckless adventure could not work as constructed, and would lead to a traumatic crisis. They shrugged off the warnings.They were told too that currency unions do not eliminate risk: they merely switch it from currency risk to default risk. But no, the EU masters would hear none of it.

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