Saturday, October 2, 2010

An object in motion stays in motion

I'm sure that when Sir Isaac Newton came up with his first law of motion he wasn't trying to explain currency movements. Let me add to Newton's law of motion, a currency that is oversold can stay oversold. As you can see from the chart of the USD index, it is oversold and its moving averages have just signaled a death cross.

Source: Stockcharts.com
Notice on the chart above that the Williams % R indicator has been in oversold territory since Sept 13. With the back drop of QE 2.0, I think the USD will continue to weaken right into the November elections.

Below is a 3-year chart of the USD index by Ashraf Laidi. The press is talking about currency wars, well if the index breaks below the May 2008 low of around 72 then we will have a currency crisis.

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