With the ESRI now predicting that further tax increases and spending cuts of up to €15bn will be needed to meet the Government's target of cutting the budget deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by 2014, Ireland faces the bleak choice of either quitting the euro or facing a decade or more of depression and deflation.
In virtually every sovereign debt crisis in which it has been involved, a central part of the IMF's shock therapy has been a hefty currency devaluation. By making exports cheaper and imports dearer, it helps offset the impact of public spending cuts.
Unfortunately our membership of the euro deprives us of this safety valve. Instead, we are condemned to a decade or more of deflation and depression. While this might win us kudos in Brussels and Frankfurt, Irish voters are likely to prove less tolerant. Read the full article here.
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